The midterm elections are now less than a week away and, like many of you, I will be glad when it’s over. Political candidates have overtaken the airwaves. People on both sides are riveted on the polls. One is left to speculate on who will come out on top.
The Pols: Having delved into elected politics for a decade and a half, I appreciate what it’s like to be a politician. They come in all stripes. Some are sincerely devoted to a world view and ideology that enlivens their policy goals. Some articulate them clearly, even if not in detail. Nonetheless, they tell us what they will and won’t do. They make promises and if we elect them, we will discover more about their character, to wit, do they keep those pledges or make excuses because they weren’t kept.
Other types will say anything to get a vote. I find them tiresome, but sadly very prevalent. It really doesn’t matter what they say. The promises are simply a wellspring of rhetoric that signifies one thing. Please elect me. Unfortunately, the dull of mind often do so and we are stuck with the result.
My preference for politicians are those who are what they say they are and do what they say they will. And while I am conservative in my views, I look for leaders who have the ability to work with others and make compelling arguments to bring a majority along to adopt the best policy toward a conservative end. The “my way or the highway” approach simply doesn’t work. That means compromise is required. Moreover, it’s necessary to recognize success when you see it which translates to a simple proposition for me. If you can attain a deal that is 80 percent of what you seek, take it, and continue to fight for the remaining 20 percent in subsequent legislation. Those pols are few these days. But I am searching for them.
The Polls: Politicians live by poll-driven campaigns. They use them to sort out where people are on this or that issue. That’s not entirely bad since political office should be about service and service about listening to the people. That said, poll results are helpful in shaping arguments that encourage people in another direction. In other words, glean what people are saying and thinking and then offer them a persuasive argument to win them to your side of the argument. We see that in this current election where suburban women who walked away from conservatives in 2020 have now returned to the side that is focused on the issues they care about, namely inflation, crime, and schools.
Yet one needs to be careful of polls. It’s not the exact science it once was, particularly since some folks—like me—often refuse to participate in them, particularly over a land line or cell phone. Those taken on-line are some of the most inaccurate of all. In the past, it was not unusual to complete a poll in a day or two. But now they often take longer just to find willing participants. As such, they can be skewed in their results, especially if they address an issue that is subject to the latest news, like inflation numbers, crime reports, and scandals. Moreover, polls that rely on registered as opposed to likely voters are hardly worth the paper they appear on. Always go with likely voters. They are the ones—amazingly—who are likely to show up.
The Predictions: I am not a good prognosticator. Why? Because my tendency is to hope for the election of people who have my outlook. And like conservative icon William F. Buckley, I almost always pick the most conservative candidate most likely to win. They don’t always win. Even so, the midterms have arrived, and I think at this point, some predictions are worth considering.
I respect Mark Penn, currently the chairman of the Harris Poll. He was President Bill Clinton’s pollster but is very evenhanded in his prognostications. He thinks the House of Representatives will flip 20 seats to the Republicans, with Florida, Ohio, border states, and suburban women being decisive in the outcomes. The latter have shifted 26 points away from Democrats in recent months according to the Wall Street Journal poll. Penn also thinks the elections will result in 51 to 52 GOP senators. I agree with him. Republicans have made a better case in this campaign. We’ll see if the people agree.
Nevertheless, I’ll be glad for a day of rest from all of this on Wednesday, 9 November. Sadly, that day will likely be overtaken with speculation about who will run for President in just 24 months. I think I’ll sell my television on 10 November.
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