In the foreign policy and national security business, it’s usually better to be clear unless being vague is necessary to your purpose. Sometimes national leaders are opaque when they are considering actions they do not want to telegraph. However, in Ukraine, we should be explicit. Indeed, being explicit is exactly what the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should be in declaring our clear stance concerning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In the early phases of this war, the Administration of President Joe Biden fumbled badly. They did not deter Russia, but rather teased its aggression through the profoundly botched withdrawal from Afghanistan just two years ago. When NATO members realized the danger the war posed, Mr. Biden seemed to cower behind them, until it was clear that the Ukrainians would not roll over and play dead while Russia stormed into their country. Mr. Biden seemed incapable of uttering the words “We want Ukraine to win.” And when his advisors finally persuaded him to declare such, his provision of military support was sluggish. It’s better now. But the inexplicable delays have made it harder for Ukraine.
The war has now reached a critical point where Ukrainian forces are beginning to make progress against a battered Russian Army whose morale by all accounts is profoundly low. Indeed, the Russian mercenary force, the Wagner Group, revolted over the poor orchestration of the war, an event which shook the Russian regime to its roots. The assassination of the Wagner potentate Yevgeny Prigozhin eliminated the immediate threat of a coup.
Nonetheless Russia’s Vladimir Putin senses American fatigue in providing support to Ukraine and has decided—again—to rattle his nuclear saber, sending handwringers in Congress into a tizzy and leaving cable blabbermouths in high dudgeon. Some panicked observers are even peddling the belief that unless we abandon Ukraine now, we’ll be compelled to eventually deploy US forces to Ukraine to deter Russia from seizing the entire country. Mr. Putin delights in American war-weariness and baseless anxiety.
To the contrary, the US and NATO need to “sit steady in the saddle.” Moreover, we must be clear about our policy in Ukraine, which heretofore has been episodic, halting, inconsistent, and frivolously trite, like declaring “we’re in it as long as it takes.” It’s time to seriously state what that takes. Try this declaration:
“The US policy in Ukraine is designed to unambiguously stand against the naked aggression of one sovereign nation over another. Our goal is to assist Ukraine with military provisions and diplomatic pressure to compel a withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory seized by Russia prior to 2014. Our support with NATO for Ukraine will not be deterred by escalatory threats from Russia nor will we tolerate any aggression by Russia directed at our alliance. On this we are firm. Nonetheless, we seek a peaceful solution to Russia’s war of aggression that will secure the safety of not only Ukraine, but also Russia’s return to a cooperative place within the family of European nations committed to peace, open commerce, and mutual respect for the self-determination and sovereignty of all nations in Europe. In that regard, we reaffirm our support for a free Ukraine, as well as our pledge to Russia that the US and NATO does not seek the demise of the Russian state in any manner. We simply seek peace but will support Ukraine as long as Russia’s aggression continues against a neighboring free state. For those who say we have no interests at stake in the outcome of the war in Ukraine, peace in Europe is a key national security objective for the US and NATO. It is important to remember that the NATO treaty is one of “North Atlantic” nations. This includes Canada and the US. So, in every respect, Russian aggression in Ukraine has an impact on the entirety of NATO. While the US does not desire to introduce ground forces in Ukraine, we remain unwavering in our support for Ukraine to defeat Russian aggression. However, we are now ready to entertain serious discussions regarding peace. The preconditions for that are (1) cessation of all hostilities against Ukraine, (2) the disengagement of all combat forces, (3) withdrawal of Russian forces to pre-2014 international borders, (4) a complete exchange and accounting of all prisoners of war, and (5) a return of all Ukrainian civilians and children forcibly removed from Ukraine by Russia.”
Given Mr. Biden’s inclination to mishandle international crises, it is unlikely he would issue a statement of this nature. However, his Secretaries of State and Defense would do well to summon the courage to affix their names to something similar and make clear to the President that we are at a critical point in this war where clarity, not obscurity is vitally needed.
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