For those whose circadian rhythm is tied to presidential elections, this week—12 days from Election Day—you may be in a high state of euphoria or depression. That depends on your allegiance to one candidate or the other. Fortunately, I have no such emotion because all I can do is vote and I’ve done that. It’s in somebody else’s hands now. But for those who follow the polls, the swings from one candidate to another in this highly divided environment is maddening.
The simple truth is polls are the last thing one should depend on to know who is ahead in a race where both candidates are within the margin of error, which is the inherent inaccuracy of the poll. Among credible polls, that’s about 3 percent. So what good are polls? They do have a value. Actually, the most important insight you can get from a poll is where people are on the issues. Why? Because people sometimes are not completely transparent on who they are supporting in a political race. If the candidate is controversial but may be the choice for the person being surveyed, the respondent may hedge his or her bet by saying they are undecided. However, when it comes to issues, people are more inclined to say what they think about “the border” or “abortion” or “taxes” or “gun rights.” They are less inclined to reveal their true feelings about a controversial candidate.
This is a factor with former President Donald Trump who in the past has always outperformed his polling number. Hillary out polled him on average by 6 points, and he beat her. Biden bested him on average by 10 points and the election was very close. Why? People lie to avoid being stigmatized for supporting one candidate or the other, even if being interviewed by a faceless person on a phone located several states away from your kitchen.
What’s a circadian political junkie to do? Here’s some practical advice. Set the polls aside and use your eyes, ears, and senses.
The race for the White House has been close since Biden was ushered out of the contest by the Democrat party. Democrats were very concerned after his pathetic debate performance in June that he was toast in the upcoming election. Enter Kamala Harris. Democrats were so relieved by Biden’s departure—or ejection—that Harris enjoyed a big “bump” in her poll numbers. The Democrat convention created an aura of “joy” and “vibe” that was more like a needed release of a bloated bowel than an emotional euphoria. And like a gas pain, it soon dissipated. The polls have been tight ever since.
So, who will win this election on 5 November? The standard retort is “it remains to be seen.” That is a cop-out. It remains to be seen if you actually only look at the trends.
Think about it: First, there is a clear indication—yes based on polls—that Hispanics are prepared to support Republicans in numbers not seen in recent years. Surprisingly—based on the issue responses—Hispanics have not supported open borders.
Second, for the first time since 1996, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters has declined to endorse a candidate for president after years of supporting Democrats. Indeed, in a poll the Teamsters’ President released, over 60 percent of the union’s membership support Donald Trump. They see him as a “blue collar billionaire” who speaks to their issues. And they aren’t looking for a radically woke female Democrat to run the country. They want someone who understands economics. And after years of building—well—buildings, Trump is viewed as “one of them.” That drives Democrats to derision. And the Democrat Vice Presidential candidate telling them they “lacked courage”—pretty rich for a guy who dodged combat—for not endorsing Harris will likely drive more Teamsters to vote for Trump.
Third, young Black males are speaking out, not only in issue polls, but on camera that they are tired of being taken for granted by Democrats. When Kamala Harris promises them free pot and no-interest redeemable loans—something even they know if done by race is unconstitutional—they think she is treating them to “vote bait.” They’re a lot smarter than Kamala gives them credit for and they know that under Trump, the economy was better even without offering gratuitous freebies, the Democrat go-to strategy to keep the masses sated. Young Blacks are not in the mood to be pacified. They want to be regarded respectfully, not as pot lovers, but rather based on their abilities and individual drive. They do not require a “Suga Momma.” They only require a fair system where they can compete and win as a function of their own skill.
They are seeing with their own eyes. All of us should as well.
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