It’s now evident to everyone—even those who can’t imagine it—that we’re headed for a rematch of the 2020 Presidential election. You may have wished for another result, but as the old Scottish proverb goes, “If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.” And for those who lament the presidential candidates before us, thinking “if so-and-so were nominated,” or maybe “if this and that and thus and so” were the case, they’d feel much better about this election. Your proverb might be “If ‘ifs’ and ‘ands’ were pots and pans, there’d be no work for tinkers’ hands.” In other words, quit griping. The field is set. The question is “what’s best for the country?”
For me what’s best is a conservative solution. Some of you may disagree. But for those who know me and how I think, I follow the “Buckley Rule,” coined by conservative icon William F. Buckley (1925-2008). As a classic conservative—there are less of them anymore—Bill Buckey was pragmatic about elections. His rule of thumb was simple. “Support the conservative who has the best chance of winning.” He understood that when all the rhetorical balderdash had been spewed, what remains was called governance. And if you want your side to govern, then pick a winner.
But picking a winner to support can be complicated if you select one who can’t articulate clearly what his or her priorities are. Railing ad nauseum is a poor way to capture votes. People—rational ones who are more interested in attainable solutions than fulminating pep rallies—actually want to hear and understand a message that is appealing and reasonable. In that regard, remember this. Don’t forget it. In 2023, 38 percent of the country saw themselves as conservative. If you do, you are in the minority. If you’re liberal, you’re 29 percent of the voting population and in a distinct minority. That leaves 33 percent who are moderates and frankly up for grabs. If you are in this category, you are a deal-maker or a deal-breaker when it comes to winning. And here’s a caution. In this last group 18 percent want a third-party candidate.
So consistent with my Buckley leaning, permit me to suggest some ideas on conservative messaging that will attract voters, especially moderate ones.
The Issues
Illegal Immigration: Most rational Americans don’t oppose lawful immigration. But they don’t like what they are seeing on our southern border. Conservatives need to frame the issue carefully to make sense. If you’re in a boat with a hole in it, you have two basic choices. Bail like mad or plug the hole. People understand that. They also understand this. We are a nation of immigrants, all the way back to 1607. All we ask is that immigrants come legally and play by our rules, and they’ll find open arms. Otherwise, they’ll find open jail cell doors.
The Economy: It’s time for what could be called “Kitchen Table Culling.” We are destroying the economy with obscene debt levels. When families look at their budgets—particularly ones ravaged by inflation—they make tough choices. Frame the Federal choices rationally. If a family can reduce their outgo by 5%, which is what many do in the current economy, so can the Federal government. Be bold and honest about the harsh reality of our debt and people will appreciate that.
Foreign Policy: The long-standing conservative position on this in a very multipolar and therefore multi-dangerous world is “peace through strength,” not “peace through intervention.” The former brought down our Cold War enemies. If we are strong, we will deter aggression and not have to resort to intervention. Make the case. People will understand and appreciate a factual explanation.
Defense: People want a strong and ready national defense, not one driven by social engineering. Speak to that and you’ll solve the current recruiting shortfalls.
Social Issues: There’s much division in the land over the culture wars. Abortion. Gender-politics. Wokism. Race-baiting rhetoric. DEI. People are worn out with all of this. So, speak to them calmly and with common sense. Pivot away from the progressive shouters and say, “It’s time for us to control the government, not control your freedom.” That will resonate with swing voters and give conservatives the majority to deal rationally with all of these issues.
The Tone
Finally, this. Successful campaigns are about addition, not subtraction. Candidates can insult their opponents, but they should not be surprised when that turns people away. A minimum of common courtesy is not too much to ask. It’s time to turn the temperature down and the thoughtful voices up. Now more than ever people want to hear reasoned solutions and clear plans of action. The consultants will counsel nuance. What voters want are specifics. The consultants forget that the simple math of addition attains victory.
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