It’s hard to imagine peace in Afghanistan these days. Particularly now that the country has been abandoned to Taliban thugs and their roving assassination squads culling out former supporters of the U.S. to murder them in cold blood. There is no peace today.
There was a modicum of peace before May of this year. Indeed, for all the talk in recent months about “ending endless wars,” there were far fewer U.S. forces there than the highpoint of the war. But that peace was illusionary, merely an interlude in the feudalistic fighting that is Afghanistan.
In truth, the mistake made by the U.S. and coalition forces after we destroyed al-Qaeda in in 2001 was that we did not leave in 2002. We stayed. We nation built. And there was some good. Particularly for women and children. But absent a fundamental change in Afghan culture—away from the repression of radical Islamic fundamentalism—what we are seeing now in the streets of Kabul should surprise no one. Yet there is a good and bad way to disengage, and we did that badly.
President Joe Biden claims the collapse of the Afghan Army as the Taliban advanced was “rapid” and “unexpected.” It was rapid. But it wasn’t unexpected once the U.S. declared we were leaving and would no longer be there to support them, a declaration that encouraged the Taliban to move with rapidity.
In January of this year, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point published “Afghanistan’s Security Forces Versus the Taliban: A Net Assessment.” It concluded this of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) vis-a-vis the Taliban.
“[I]f the United States were to withdraw the remainder of its forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban would enjoy a slight military advantage that would increase in a compounding manner over time. While the Taliban’s chief spokesman recently “said that the group’s primary goal is to settle the issues through talks and that a ‘military solution’ would be used only as a last resort,” the results of this analysis suggest that the United States and government of Afghanistan would be wise to vigorously pursue negotiations while U.S. forces remain and avoid tempting the Taliban to exploit the military advantage it would have in their absence.”
Mind you, this was written in January of 2021. Even in academic settings it was clear that if the U.S. were to withdraw from Afghanistan that the Taliban would exploit the situation to seize control of the country. The only finger in the dyke—so to speak—was the presence of U.S. intelligence capabilities, special operators, and air power in support of the ANDSF. So, when the current U.S. Administration tells us that collapse was “rapid and a surprise to many,” that is nonsense. Our leaders knew a precipitous withdrawal would accelerate the Taliban’s takeover. Moreover, President Biden knew things were going badly as far back as 23 July when he spoke to former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani about how the ANDSF was disintegrating following Biden’s announced 31 August departure, rejecting a conditions-based approach.
“I need not tell you the perception around the world and in parts of Afghanistan, I believe, is that things are not going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban…And there is a need, whether it is true or not, there is a need to project a different picture.”
Biden was alarmed that if it became known publicly that the ANDSF was collapsing rapidly—in part because of Biden’s precipitous and total withdrawal—that there would be pressure on him to extend the deadline to stabilize conditions. That was politically unpalatable to him. His solution to that problem was to encourage Ghani to “project a different picture,” one that would not derail the evacuation, even if what was “projected” was “not true.”
Untangling from a messy situation is hard. It cannot be done fecklessly and with a wave of the hand as President Biden has done. And encouraging the Afghan President to lie was a pathetic effort to deceive the American people that all was well when Biden knew it wasn’t.
Whether we like it or not, having fought for 20 years in Afghanistan, we incurred an obligation to real people: men, women, and children. Many of them are now facing death, including U.S. citizens stranded there. That is shameful.
General Colin Powell used to ascribe to the “pottery rule.” If you break it, you own it. We didn’t “break” Afghanistan. But we have left it broken, nonetheless. We had an obligation to leave in a responsible manner. We didn’t. That’s a disgrace. Mr. Biden’s precipitous withdrawal was the height of irresponsibility. And after fleeing from Afghanistan so irresponsibly, he sent a new and very bad message to the world. If we participate in breaking it, too bad. You own it all.
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1 Comment
Don Matthews · September 15, 2021 at 11:16 pm
Hello Scott, been following your columns and enjoy the food for thought. The book was outstanding, thanks for writing it.