For anyone who follows politics, we’re headed for one of the most uproarious national elections in the history of our country. There will be so many twists and turns, ups and downs, flips and flops, that it will be impossible to avoid the dizzying nausea. Not only will there be nominees from the two major parties, but likely one from a group that bills itself the “No Labels Party.” And of course, there are independents running. All of this will factor in who ultimately will win. Let’s take a closer look.
BIDEN: By all accounts, President Biden is the least popular president in the history of the United States. In every category, the polls show his numbers tumbling to well below 40 percent. On the major issues of the day, the crisis at the border earns him his lowest numbers. Moreover, persistently high prices for food, gas, and the things people buy every day have soured a majority of people across all demographics.
Even traditionally friendly components of the Democrat coalition, namely Blacks and Hispanics, are fleeing Biden. Adding to his woes are the huge numbers of young voters—highly progressive—who are looking elsewhere. Taken together, his team sees this as a bleak condition. They are alarmed that Blacks, Hispanics, and the youth are inclined to vote for Biden’s major opponent.
What has changed? Trump. People now consider that Trump might be far better in improving their lives than Biden. At this writing, it’s hard to see what Biden can do to stop his downward slide aside from promising to give people money that we don’t have to dole out. No problem. It’s just debt. Oops, that is the problem.
TRUMP: I cannot recall in my lifetime when one candidate was so hated and so loved consistent with the split personality that is the voting public these days. Nearly as many who idolize Trump utterly despise him. In 2016 when he won, people hated him less than they disliked Hillary Clinton, who—next to Trump—may be the most arrogant political figure in America, even now.
Yet Trump’s policies worked for America after his election. The economy took off, the border was secure, we were less inclined to go to war, and working to end existing ones. Peace was even glimmering in the Middle East under Trump. But when he lost in 2020—and he certifiably did—it was not his policies that defeated him. It was his persona. To be sure, the ridiculous impeachments, fraudulent accusations (both in Congress and embedded in our massive government) and the COVID outbreak vexed his presidency. But when suburban women and independents walked away, he was doomed to defeat, even as more people voted for him in 2020 than in 2016.
What has changed? Biden. The current occupant of the White House has done more to popularize Trump’s policies than anyone could have foreseen. Biden’s policies are repugnant to the majority of Americans. Consequently, Trump can exploit the popularity of his past policies by building on them, something Biden cannot do. Yet if Trump cannot contain his self-aggrandizing commentary and proclivity to insult the voters he needs in November, he will fall short. Message to Trump. Zip it.
NO LABLES: If it were properly titled, it would be the “No Biden-No Trump” party. They don’t have a candidate and now appear to be the “No Viability” party.
RFK, Jr: The son of the iconic Bobby Kennedy, struck down by a Palestinian assassin in 1968, is slowly becoming a factor in the election. It’s unlikely that he will corral conservative voters in significant numbers since he’s very liberal. But the threat to Biden is profound. Young voters are flocking to RFK. And his vice presidential pick, the very progressive Nicole Shanahan, has the Biden team ripping their hair out by fistfuls. She’s a young technology entrepreneur and lawyer who will appeal to younger voters. Therefore, she alone represents a major threat to Biden, as if his awful policies are not enough.
How serious is the threat? RFK is on the ballot in five states now: Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Utah. With the exception of Hawaii, all are swing states, especially North Carolina. And he has an organization working on ballot access in another 36 states and DC. Among nine states where he has no organization, three (Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Tennessee) are Trump’s anyway. But if RFK gets on the ballot in the remaining six, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin, the Biden could be in trouble.
What has changed? Disaffection. It’s on the rise and RFK will hurt Biden more than Trump. The West Wing hair pulling continues.
But for those who still have remaining locks to comb, it’s going to be a hair-raising roller-coaster ride until November.
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